James Fishback’s bid for the Florida Republican nomination for Governor was always a long shot, so his third-place finish in Tuesday’s Republican gubernatorial primary came as no surprise. Fishback received just 10.5% of the vote, well behind Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who won the nomination with 47.8%, and Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who finished second with 25.2%.
What has been surprising, however, is the concerted effort by elements of both the left and the Groyper-adjacent right to push the false narrative that the Tucker Carlson-endorsed Fishback swept Florida’s university precincts — supposedly signaling a major shift among young voters.
The claim is dubious on its face, but it becomes even more absurd when you realize that this sweeping conclusion is based on fewer than 100 student votes. There’s an obvious reason for the tiny sample: Florida’s universities are not yet back in session.
The narrative serves two very different agendas. The left is amplifying it as supposed evidence that the next generation of Republicans is gravitating toward extremism: “Look, young Republicans are Nazis.”
And the Groypers — aided by several prominent Groyper-adjacent influencers — are promoting it as proof that their movement represents the future of the Republican Party.
The narrative looks to have begun with a social media post from Garrett Herrin, the CEO of a group called VoteHub, and then spread from there.
Vote Hub identifies itself as a nonpartisan, “independent political news outlet offering innovative real-time election reporting, polling aggregations, and deep data driven analysis.”
Herrin wrote: “James Fishback is winning every college campus precinct VoteHub has examined tonight.”
Community notes were quickly attached to this post and Herrin’s subsequent posts reminding readers that “Fall classes at FSU, UCF, USF, and University of Tampa begin August 24-25, 2026, after the August 19 election, so campus precinct turnout consisted of few student votes.”
In a second post, he acknowledges the sample size is “far too small to draw meaningful conclusions,” but still notes that “Fishback won 4 of the 6 votes cast on campus and also performed relatively well in surrounding precincts.”
Another university in. Unfortunately, UCF’s sample is far too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but Fishback won 4 of the 6 votes cast on campus and also performed relatively well in surrounding precincts. https://t.co/dN2ibPBMHW
— Garrett Herrin (@GarrettHerrin) August 19, 2026
In a third post, he disregards the community notes completely, reporting, “Fishback won or tied in 10 precincts on and around Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee.”
James Fishback won or tied in 10 precincts on and around Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee. pic.twitter.com/tlOUkmgHsc
— Garrett Herrin (@GarrettHerrin) August 19, 2026
Commenting on Herrin’s post, far-right activist and editor of Human Events Jack Posobiec wrote: “Huge youth vote shift.”
Widely followed X account @Cernovich also responded to the post: “Wow.”
https://t.co/76Hl0ojOXD pic.twitter.com/1JvTAV0wUn
— William A. Jacobson (@wajacobson) August 19, 2026
Clearly frustrated by an X user’s attempt to promote the budding narrative, conservative X account @AGHamilton29 injected some much needed sanity. First, he reminded the woman who knowingly or unknowingly reposted the lies, “Not one college is even in session. Fishback got 28 votes in the FSU precinct. He’s currently at 10%. Pay attention to those trying to push this nonsensical narrative trying to overemphasize an electoral group that doesn’t matter and pretend they represent the GOP.”
Then he explained precisely what was happening: “The alt-right and the left both have a vested interest in pretending the former has a much larger influence in the GOP than reality. That’s why they are spinning so hard after the alt-right candidate got destroyed in this race.”
The alt-right and the left both have a vested interest in pretending the former has a much larger influence in the GOP than reality. That’s why they are spinning so hard after the alt-right candidate got destroyed in this race. https://t.co/8zZPNSfh4m
— AG (@AGHamilton29) August 19, 2026
There is a constituency of young Republicans attracted to Fishback’s brand of politics, and it would be foolish to dismiss that. But Tuesday’s results tell us virtually nothing about its size. You cannot extrapolate a sweeping generational political shift from a handful of votes cast in largely empty college precincts.
What we can learn from this episode is how quickly a flimsy narrative can take hold when it serves competing political interests. The left has reason to exaggerate the influence of the Groyper right, while the Groypers have every reason to exaggerate their own. In this case, both sides are using the same statistically meaningless handful of votes to tell very different versions of the same story.
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