Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is famous for lagging in the polls only to outperform all expectations in the only poll that counts: Election Day. Although it’s almost unfathomable, she has trailed her Democratic opponent in the Maine Senate race, former state Sen. Troy Jackson, ever since his appointment as the new nominee in July. You will recall that Jackson was installed after the spectacular implosion of former Democratic nominee Graham Platner’s campaign.
Except for one poll in early July that gave Collins a slight edge, Jackson maintained a 2- to 5-point lead in every major poll until mid-September, when a Quantus Insights survey put Collins up by one point.
Three additional polls released late last week provided a mixed picture. A New York Times/Siena University survey conducted Sept. 15–22 showed Collins ahead by three points. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted Sept. 17–21 put Jackson up by four. An InsiderAdvantage poll found the race tied.
It’s worth noting that UNH is a left-leaning pollster. Its earlier polling of the Collins-Platner matchup consistently stood out from other public surveys. In earlier iterations, the university showed Platner leading Collins by 11 points and then by 9 points — results that proved to be outliers.
Perhaps the New York Times understands that too. Because, on Friday, the outlet cited the Maine Senate race as “one of three bright spots for the GOP” and portrayed the latest results as evidence of a “turnaround” for Collins.
According to the Times:
There has been a change in Maine.
When we last polled Maine’s Senate race, in June, the Republican incumbent Susan Collins was trailing Graham Platner, then the Democratic nominee, by 2 percentage points.
But things have been shaken up since then. Platner left the race after a former girlfriend accused him of rape, which he denied. Troy Jackson, a former logger and state lawmaker, took his place on the ballot. And now, our poll finds Collins with a slim 3-point lead.
A majority of voters say they view Collins positively, which was not the case in our poll over the summer. She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats.
What shines through brightly in the poll is that voters believe Collins is delivering for Maine. Nearly 60 percent of voters — including 63 percent of independents and even 20 percent of Democrats — say they think Collins would do a better job bringing money and resources to the state than Jackson would.
While the four most recent polls yielded four very different outcomes, the race has changed. When Jackson first replaced Platner, the RealClearPolitics polling average showed him leading Collins by 5 points. As of Saturday, his lead had dwindled to 0.9 points. That’s a significant shift.
Remember, too, that the Times is not in the business of overstating any Republican’s chances if the evidence isn’t there.
Until July, Maine progressives were swept up in Graham Platner fever. Eager to elect the enigmatic newcomer, they seemed willing to overlook almost any past transgression. When Jackson replaced him, some of that zeal likely carried over. And frankly, while Susan Collins, the alternative, is a good and decent woman, it would be a stretch to say she ever inspired much voter excitement.
Nor is Jackson an ideal candidate. And he carries some baggage of his own.
When he first entered the race, the fifth-generation logger from Allagash declared he was “ready to flip Maine’s Senate seat and unseat Susan Collins once and for all.” He boasted that he’s “proven he can win — by 20 points — in a district carried by both Susan Collins and Donald Trump.”
That may be true, but just weeks earlier, Jackson had finished third in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. What did that loss say about his statewide appeal?
He ran for Congress in 2014 and didn’t survive the Democratic primary.
Jackson is also known for his fiery demeanor and confrontational style, particularly during his tenure as Maine’s Senate president. His frequent clashes with fellow lawmakers were widely reported during his gubernatorial campaign.
According to The Hill:
He’s been accused of verbally berating Rachel Talbot Ross, who served as House Speaker, during his time as Senate President.
…
Jackson was also involved in an intense discussion with former state Sen. Heather Sanborn (D) over legislation geared towards reducing prescription drug costs. He apparently threw a water bottle at one point in the argument.
“He was an inch from her nose, screaming and hollering and haranguing her,” one of Jackson’s former legislative colleagues who was in the room told The Washington Post.
“It was pretty intense. I haven’t seen anything like that before or since,” the person added.
In August, Jackson made headlines after reports emerged that his longtime partner and the mother of his children is his second cousin.
The shift toward Collins in the polls is hardly surprising. With just over five weeks until Election Day, undecided voters are starting to choose.
I expect Collins to win reelection. Whether Republicans can prevail in the other Senate races that will determine control of the chamber is a far different matter.
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